So far, this column has explored purely human endeavors of space exploration. We’ve discussed a few key topics on how to get us out into space. But what if we didn’t need to go out there? What if out there came to us instead? These are questions that most people consider somewhere between a semi-serious question and science fiction; however governments around the world have been asking themselves what would the impact be on our society if we made contact.
Any civilization that could reach Earth from another solar system would probably be at a level of technology far superior to ours. To put this in context, it would be the equivalent of medieval technology vs. our modern technology. People will want aliens to share their superior technology with us, but there may be no telling how willing the aliens would be. They may see our problems and offer to help us or let us figure it out on our own.
Since there is no precedent on what contact with extraterrestrials will be like, we can only speculate on the possibilities. They may come to us with force; looking to pillage, enslave, or take over our world; or they could come in peace; willing to share their knowledge and technology, and help with our social, environmental and economic problems.
If we do receive new technologies from aliens, there will be political aspects to the situation. We would need a system that sees that technology is distributed to the people who need it. Our current economic systems would prevent those most in need from having access to the technologies that can improve their lives. For instance, if technology was given to us to reclaim land lost to environmental pollution, natural disaster, or war, we would need to make sure that this technology is put to work where it is needed most. This seems like common sense, but often we don’t make decisions based on needs like this, despite their relative importance. Some system other than the free market may be necessary to ensure that any new technology is used to the benefit of the entire human race, instead of just a few.
The Kepler telescope is finding new planets around other stars on the order of dozens per year, with another several hundred as yet confirmed. Most of these planets are like Jupiter or smaller ones similar to Mercury, Venus, or Mars. Observations of Earth-like planets have been recorded, but many of them are too hot, cold, or poisonous for life. This may dash the hopes of people looking for ETs, but don’t be too disappointed. The Kepler scope only looks at a very small patch of sky in the constellation Cygnus that is about 1,000 to 10,000 light-years away. This is a very small fraction of the stars in our galaxy and we live in a BIG galaxy – we may be looking in the completely wrong direction. There are other galactic habitable zones that may offer more of a chance for life to start, evolve, and form complex multicellular organisms, like us.
In the early sixties, a scientist by the name of Drake invented an equation, which is used to estimate the number of planets that contain civilization that is advanced and possibly space-faring. The parameters of the equation require knowledge far beyond what we have so far. However, we’re slowly chipping away at the lack of data. Maybe in a few decades, as telescopes and our charting of the galaxy improve, we may have enough data to estimate, if not the number of advanced civilizations, then at least the number of worlds that could support a civilization like ours. The Drake equation is provided below.
In this equation, N is the number of civilizations that we can find, ne are the number of Earth-like worlds in any solar system, L is the length of time that they produce observable emissions, and the remaining f coefficients describe the probability of Earth-like planets supporting life, the fraction of those planets that can sustain intelligent life, and for any civilization to develop communications technology that can be detected by us on Earth. R is the rate of formation of stars in the galaxy. Essentially, what this means is that at any given time it is possible to observe N number of civilizations, provided that their emissions are detectable to us and they last long enough for us to detect them.
With respect to the variables in this equation, scientists have a good understanding of R*, the rate of star formation for stars like ours (spectral class G2) and are getting a better understanding of fp (the fraction of star systems with planets in them) and ne (the number of those planets that have Earth-like worlds). However, it will be some time before the remainder of the f coefficients can be estimated, as we do not yet have the ability to detect signals coming from an exoplanet’s surface.
The Drake equation has received criticism over the years though. Some scientists claim that the variables are inestimable right now, while others claim that even if we had data that we’d need a statistically representative sample to provide a good estimate of N. After that, some of the hypothetical values that have been calculated range from a galaxy where we are the only intelligent life, to a galaxy burgeoning with competing space-faring civilizations. Essentially, a range from one to very large doesn’t really help us out. Although the equation technically makes sense, it lacks much data and generates a lot of doubters since there is no test yet that can show that it’s either reliable or unreliable.
Contact with extraterrestrials, whether on Earth or in space, has the potential to change our world. Some may embrace it, while others will fight it, but regardless, how we respond to it will determine how our society evolves. This would be a chance to understand ourselves and challenge our human-centric world view. It will force us to form a different opinion of ourselves and our place in the universe.
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