Fantasy baseball is all about owning players that will perform better than when they are drafted. Barring injury, the best players are generally the best players, but winning managers draft unheralded players who they feel will outperform their draft position. Getting those diamonds in the rough can complete your fantasy team and your quest to the gold. With pitching, these diamonds are a dime a dozen. The talent is as deep as the well Timmy fell in. FTP presents some deep pitching sleepers who are not even being drafted in standard leagues, and some pitchers you might want to reconsider before putting them on your queue.
Studs
Brian Matusz, SP, BAL(ADP 330.30)
In August, September, and October of last season, Matusz was 7-1, had a 2.18 ERA, and 1.03 WHIP. These sparkling numbers are enhanced when you realize he pitched against many of the American League’s offensive juggernauts, like the White Sox, Rays, Rangers, Yankees, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. The 4th overall pick in the 2008 amateur draft, this slick southpaw is armed with a fastball, filthy slider, curve and change. Matusz is left on the waiver wire in about a third of the leagues, and if you do the same, you are leaving a high 3’s ERA and 150 strikeouts out of your team. Matusz’ low risk, high reward upside makes him a tantalizing last round pick.
Carlos Zambrano, SP, CHC (404.56)
Remember when the Cubs had Mark Prior and Kerry Wood throwing darting rockets, and they were going to rule the NL Central for years to come? Zam-bam settled as the temperamental third pitcher in their rotation. A few years later, after Prior’s arm fell off and Wood had returned as a reliever, Zambrano has taken the mantle as the staff ace. In the offseason, the Cubs brought in Matt Garza from the Rays with hopes of fortifying their starting pitching, but its leader remains certain. Zambrano went through some injury issues last year around July, but came back explosively in September. With almost one strikeout per inning with ERA and WHIP around 1.00, we were reminded of better days. In deep leagues, there is no harm taking a flyer on the veteran starter. Owners in shallow leagues must keep Zambrano in mind for streaming purposes.
Edinson Volquez, SP, CIN (413.97)
Sometimes fantasy baseball can be easy. When you pitch on a winning team with a good offence, you generally pick up wins. When you throw a 94-mph fastball and a change-up that plummets off the face of the Earth, you generally pick up some strikeouts. Volquez is primed for a strong bounce-back season after Tommy John Surgery. He finished his last three starts of the 2010 season strong, posting a 19.5 ERA over 27.2 IP, and 1.15 K/IP. Again, you’re getting a pitcher that is arguably the most talented on a star-studded and contending team for almost nothing. Who can resist a no-harm, all-gain scenario?
Chris Perez, RP, CLE (174.67)
Perez is one of so many reasons why you do not pay for saves early. Perez got 23 saves and was essentially unhittable last year, but he was setting up for Kerry Wood to start the season. Do not be scared of Perez pitching for a bad team. Even bad teams win games, and those games are going to be close. This is the perfect storm for picking a sleeper closer, and his strikeout-per-inning stuff is the sweet cherry on top.
Duds
Cole Hamels, SP, PHI (65.02)
So the Phillies picked up some guy named Cliff Lee. Their pitching staff, with Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, and Hamels, might be the best ever assembled. The nicknames are coming in too (R2C2 is my personal favourite). Understandably, there is a lot of hype surrounding the prowess of the Phillies’ starters. Hamels, by many accounts, pitches very well. You cannot ask much more after 3.06 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and over 200 strikeouts. It is the draft position that is bothersome. If you take Hamels around the end of the fifth round, you are saying goodbye to players like Yovani Gallardo, Justin Verlander, Francisco Liriano, and Tommy Hanson. Oswalt, Hamels’ teammate and a part of baseball’s new Mount Rushmore, can be had some 40 picks later. Hamels is right on the cusp between the great and good pitchers. He is not quite good enough to be considered in the top two starting pitching tiers. Perhaps with all the talent around him, he can be more relaxed while pitching and put up great numbers again, but I am betting there is a reason he has been a .500 pitcher these last two seasons.
Trevor Cahill, SP, OAK (95.43); Tim Hudson, SP, ATL (147.55)
Cahill and Hudson are groundball machines. They make use of a bevy of sinkers and breaking balls to coax harmless rollers to their infielders. The downward movement causes the bat to hit the top of the ball, directing it into the ground. In fact, somewhat counterintuitively, they want the hitters to swing. This is great strategy in real baseball that does not translate well into our fantasy game. By encouraging hitters to hack at the ball, their strikeout numbers plummet, which makes Cahill, Hudson, and other groundball pitchers generally poor contributors in the fantasy realm, especially in leagues with an innings cap. Their ERA and WHIP numbers are fantastic and will certainly contribute to any team, but make sure these players are complimentary pieces to your staff, and not its anchors. Furthermore, the batting average on balls in play for both guys are quite low, which suggests that after some normalizing, the ERA and WHIP numbers should go up. Cahill and Hudson are good pitchers, but make sure you have a strong vision of your pitching before hastily drafting these players.
Francisco Cordero, RP, CIN (175.06)
You can get Cordero relatively late, so he is not really so much of a dud, but I feel his reputation and situation precede his pitching abilities. His ERA ballooned to 3.84 last season, with a WHIP of 1.36. Except 2009, his key pitching stats have risen in the last four years. While these high stats are mitigated by a relief pitcher’s low number of innings pitched, you can certainly do better at this draft slot. Guys like John Axford, Drew Storen, Joe Nathan, Matt Thornton, Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters are available later, so if you’re looking for more quality innings, look to shore up other areas of your team at around the 170th pick instead of settling for a closer whose performance slips with every passing season.
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