The transit debate has been one of the most important issues in the Region of Waterloo for the last several years, and will continue to be for at least another month. The provincial government has mandated that the Region of Waterloo must build infrastructure to handle projected population growth through the Places to Grow Act of 2005. The Places to Grow Act also legislates that 40% of growth must be in urban areas. All the transit options under consideration take into account the expected population growth for 2031. Population growth projection for the region has been close to, or within the margin of error of the predicted growth rate since the baby-boomer generation of the 60s. In June, the regional council will be making the final decision on which rapid transit option will be implemented.
The transit debate has been under scrutiny since the preliminary phase of the environmental assessment, a report detailing impacts and providing high-level recommendations for routing and implementation, was completed in 2009. At that point, the regional council tentatively approved building a rapid transit system that included light rail. Then regional staff was tasked with securing funding and clarifying details for final review and decision by the regional council. The securing of funding from the provincial and federal government was completed around the time of the 2010 municipal election. The municipal election in 2010 brought up the rapid transit decision as a major issue. Although many candidates took a stand either for or against light rail, the election results did not indicate a clear winner. Due to the attention drawn to the issue, the newly elected and re-elected regional council requested a rigorous review of implementation options. In February 2011, these options were provided and public consultations for input on these options were held. Most recently, in April 2011, the regional staff has limited the possible options to three.
To understand the options, it is important to understand the technologies under consideration. Light rail rapid transit is a technology that uses electricity-powered light rail passenger vehicles. At intersections, the light rail vehicles should get priority signalling. The service should be very frequent and the vehicles should stop infrequently. Adapted bus rapid transit is similar to how the local iXpress runs. This includes long distances between stops, frequent service, and signal priority at intersections. The standard bus rapid transit technology is the same as adapted bus rapid transit, but uses dedicated roadways. All the technologies require fare-controlled areas such that passengers can board and depart through all doors.
The present debate is for the rapid transit system. However, it is important to mention another transit project that was voted on and approved in 2010. The Region Transportation Master Plan is a $2 billion overall transit plan that includes increased road capacity and public transit capacity. This plan also includes the operating costs of the rapid transit system chosen. The Regional Transit Master Plan relies on a central rapid transit line, and would need to be heavily modified if a decision to abandon rapid transit is made.
The least preferred of the three options, according to regional staff, is to build a light rail system from Conestoga Mall to Ottawa Street in Kitchener. The rest of the route to Cambridge would then be serviced by an adapted bus rapid transit system. This option will result in a property tax increase of 1.5% per year from 2012 to 2018. The second option is to build light rail from Conestoga Mall to Fairview Mall. The rest of the route would again be serviced by the adapted bus rapid transit to Cambridge. This option would result in a property tax increase of 2.0% per year from 2012 to 2018. The most preferred option is the same construction as the second option, but with different funding options. This option pushes back the implementation of the traditional bus portion of the Regional Transportation Master Plan from 60% by 2018 to 40% by 2018. This would result in the same property tax increase as option one of 1.5% per year from 2012 to 2018. The full 100% of the traditional bus portion will still be completed by 2031. All these costs assume that the funding will come entirely from property tax. The region is exploring other funding sources to help reduce these costs.
Although regional staff has limited the options to the three that include a light rail component, there are still mixed public opinions over whether the eliminated options should be reconsidered. Polls run and commissioned by The Record have shown results in favour of rapid transit with mixed results between light rail and bus options. During the public info-sessions in winter 2011, the region used a comment form to get public feedback. The questions on the comment form was, “Which of the above options do you support and why?” To this question, 78% of 705 responded indicating an option in support of rapid transit, with 66% of 705 responding in support of light rail. A very recent poll, May 25th, 2011, commissioned by the advocacy group opposing light rail, Taxpayers For Sensible Transit, shows mixed results for its few non-framed questions. However this last poll does show a large public support for a referendum to decide what transit option should be implemented. The most recent poll, published after this article was first written on May 27th 2011, commissioned by a Waterloo design company that appears to be in support of light rail, Machteld Faas Xander (MFX), shows strong support for rapid transit with strong support for light rail.
Brenda Halloran, the mayor of Waterloo, has indicated her plan to motion at regional council for a referendum on the issue. Holding a referendum on this issue would have several problems. First, adequate measures would have to be taken to inform the public on the issue. As a representative democracy, Canadians elect representatives to spend the necessary time to review decisions appropriately. Most individual citizens do not have the necessary time to appropriately review such a decision. The second concern with a referendum is that, by Ontario law, referendum questions must be answerable with “yes” or “no.” Since this decision has many options and public opinion is currently split, it is very possible that a referendum with a multi-question ballet would not result in a majority “yes” for any single option. The final concern is the cost of a referendum and delaying the project. The cost of a regional referendum would be approximately $1 million. The inflationary cost of the delay would be around $20 million dollars. This adds to the existing inflationary delay costs associated with re-reviewing the original decision that was made prior to the election. Putting off the start of construction also provides a higher risk of funding being pulled if a Conservative provincial government gets elected this fall.
Light rail rapid transit has many benefits over the alternative solutions. One of the most important is to meet the requirement for a high-speed and high-capacity interconnection between the nodes of the region. Light rail is seen as a more reliable transit solution than buses, and will attract more riders. Light rail will help to further intensify the urban areas of the region. Property value near light rail nodes will increase for commercial and residential use. Light rail rapid transit is easier to distinguish than bus rapid transit from regular buses; making it easier for people from out of town to use. Light rail will take buses off the existing roads. Finally, light rail will produce less greenhouse gas than the alternatives. These benefits are aligned with the Regional Growth Management Strategy and goals of the region. For these reasons, light rail is supported by a wide range of groups. These groups include technology companies such as Google, universities such as the University of Waterloo, and other organizations such as The Record. Groups such as the Waterloo Federation of Agriculture and the region’s townships support light rail because it will help keep regional growth centralized in the cities.
The primary concerns voiced in regards to light rail are cost-related. However, the options that will satisfy the Ontario Places to Grow Act of 2005 are all equally or more expensive to the region. The second commonly-voiced concern is that the light rail vehicles will be disruptive to traffic. Although this concern has some validity, light rail will also take buses off the primary roads. A much more valid concern about light rail is its impact on the landscape of Uptown. Although this and several other similar concerns are valid, they are also qualitative; their impact cannot be easily evaluated and opinions are mixed. Calls for review have been heard and listened to with the review of possible options released in February 2011, a further option short-listing report in April 2011, and a peer review report in April 2011.
The history of the light rail debate is long, the decision is complicated, and the time for conclusion is soon. Although light rail is a technically superior choice, the other qualitative factors will have to be taken account when the regional council decides in June. Regional council will have to take into account the evidence presented to them as well as the opinions of their constituents. A follow-up article will be issued after the decision.
For further information, here are some useful links.
The region’s rapid transit information page at http://rapidtransit.region.waterloo.on.ca
The anti-light-rail advocacy group’s page at http://www.t4st.com
The pro-light-rail advocacy group’s page at http://www.tritag.ca
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