Hello loyal readers! I wanted to end the inaugural term of the Five-Tool Player with results and analysis of my first draft of the season. I will share with you my draft strategy, how I feel about my draft, some of my reaches and steals, and things I need to do moving forward. I have posted by team below, showing which round and overall position each player was drafted in. This league is a standard 5×5 mixed league. I drafted eighth. As a shout out to you all, I named my team the Waterloo Warriors.
1. (8) Ryan Braun (Mil – OF)
2. (17) David Wright (NYM – 3B)
3. (32) Kevin Youkilis (Bos – 1B)
4. (41) Shin-Soo Choo (Cle – OF)
5. (56) Justin Morneau (Min – 1B)
6. (65) Yovani Gallardo (Mil – SP)
7. (80) Alexei Ramírez (CWS – SS)
8. (89) Álex Ríos (CWS – OF)
9. (104) Max Scherzer (Det – SP)
10. (113) Chris Carpenter (StL – SP)
11. (128) Brian Roberts (Bal – 2B)
12. (137) John Axford (Mil – RP)
13. (152) Matt Wieters (Bal – C)
14. (161) Matt Thornton (CWS – RP)
15. (176) Matt Garza (ChC – SP)
16. (185) Colby Lewis (Tex – SP)
17. (200) Edinson Vólquez (Cin – SP)
18. (209) Jorge De La Rosa (Col – SP)
19. (224) Jhoulys Chacin (Col – SP,RP)
20. (233) Jake McGee (TB – RP)
21. (248) Adam LaRoche (Was – 1B)
22. (257) Brandon Webb (Tex – SP)
23. (272) Jordan Walden (LAA – RP)
Draft strategy
I remembered the painful defeats from last season when I came second in two leagues because I could not get one steal and one save on the last day of the season. As such, I approached this draft with balance in mind. I wanted a balanced offense that could compete and win all five categories in any given week, and I wanted a hoard of strikeout machines for my pitching staff. I tried not to reach for any pitchers because of the depth in that position. I certainly did not want to get a closer before round 6. As we mentioned before, there are so many that pop up during the season that there is no point in wasting an early pick that could go towards an impact hitter or pitcher. I wanted to grab offensive difference makers early and often, and piece together a solid pitching staff with strikeout guys that are not ratio liabilities. I stayed away from the Trevor Cahills and Tim Hudsons of the player pool. Closers were on the back of my mind. I wanted some saves, but I would make up my bullpen from the waiver wire throughout the season.
Draft Outcome
I feel that I really stuck to my draft strategy, with mixed results. Overall, I feel my team will be competitive in 9 of the 10 standard categories, with the lone exception clearly being saves. Again, I devalued those entering the draft, but I was too inflexible when multiple closers’ runs passed me by. You will see that I filled out most of my offensive roster, with the exception of the last utility spot, after 13 rounds. Getting the Hebrew Hammer in the first was great. Spring training whispers have Ron Roenicke, the new Brewers skipper, wanting to run more than last season. If going 25/100/100/14 was an off year, I am extremely happy with that first overall pick. I wanted to build on that five-category contribution in the second round by drafting an equally toolsy player with David Wright. I was glad to have a shallow position addressed and have a very balanced foundation to start the draft. I wanted to fill in the rest of my offensive slots with the best overall player available approach. Getting Youk in the third was great, because he can go .300/25/100/100 in that Red Sox line-up, and he gives me 3B depth as the season moves forward. Rounding out my outfield with Choo and and Rios in the 4th and 8th round respectively gave me 50-60 steals, 50 homeruns, 170 RBI and 170 runs along with a useful batting average. Mauer got drafted in the third round and the top-tier catchers, ending with McCann, were gone by the 6th. I stayed away from that mini-run because the catching talent plateaus at about the same level after McCann goes. I ended up getting post-hype stud Matt Wieters in the 13th round, who is basically 80% of McCann but seven rounds cheaper. Remember, when the hype machine was on full blast as he was coming up from the minors, it was established that the “i before e except after c” was because of Wieters. He has the talent around him in that rejuvenated line-up to give me great value in a talent-scarce position. At the end of the day, I am very happy with my offense. Morneau and Roberts are two health questions, but there is enough depth in the wire for emergency duty (e.g. Gaby Sanchez, Marco Scutaro, Placido Polanco).
My pitching, on the other hand, leaves something to be desired. I am happy with my starting staff, which is full of players who have high strikeout rates. Of the top 20 guys with the highest K/9 in the past three seasons, I have six of them. None of them have glaringly bad ratios, with the exception of Edinson Volquez and Jorge De La Rosa. For the former, I am going to attribute that to recovering from Tommy John Surgery. For the latter, his ratios have gone down in each of the last three seasons. I am confident these guys will be closer to 3.80 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 325+ strikeouts between them. Just for insurance, I have Chris Carpenter as a WHIP anchor for any tough starts. In addition, I think Garza is a great grab in his new digs in the Chicago north side. Getting out of the AL East and into the NL always helps with the ERA and strikeout numbers. I was even able to grab Webb in the second to last round as a cheap lottery ticket. It is clear that my starters are more than adequate; the problem with my team is the relief pitching. I was a victim of having my guys getting drafted a pick or two from my slot. I had both Chris Sale and Hong-Chih Kuo queued up as WHIP and ERA cushions but they got snatched up before I could get them. Overall, I know I will be great in strikeouts and solid in ERA and WHIP, and I will probably get a ton of wins by both quality and quantity.
Reaches
Even though I am happy with Morneau being on my team, I think he is one of my bigger reaches. When it was my turn in the fifth round, it came down to Morneau and Morales as all the other power 1B were gone. I knew that Morales was not going to be available to start the season and Morneau was already playing spring training games, so I had to make sure I had a fat bat that can get me 100 RBI easily. We do forget that Morneau can be very helpful in the batting average category as he was hitting .345 before he suffered the concussion last year. I figured that with the injury risk he might last until the sixth round, but with some players I wanted already getting snatched up just before I could draft them, I had to act fast and get the Canadian on my team.
Another big reach was Yovani Gallardo. I drafted him about 20 spots earlier than his mid 80’s ADP because another owner employed an interesting strategy with his team. That owner picked top starters with his first six draft picks, so by the sixth round, Gallardo’s skills were at a premium. I had to take him before the pitching talent dried up. However, despite my massive reach, I think this owner’s strategy caused the other managers to devalue their pitching too much, leaving their staffs woefully untalented. Furthermore, this owner does not even have one respectable reliever for some saves. His strategy failed and caused many owners to draft subpar teams. Because I aimed for high K/9 and good quality ratios, this strategy likely helped me get many free points throughout the season.
Steals
I think Adam LaRoche is a major steal. We always praise Adam Dunn’s consistency with hitting 40 homeruns-he has hit 38 homeruns seven seasons in a row and had 100 RBI in six of the last seven seasons. LaRoche is essentially mini-Dunn. He has hit 20 HR in each of the last six seasons, and 25 HR in each of the last three. He also consistently hovers around 80 RBI, peaking last year at 100 RBI. The 248th pick with the potential for 25 HR and 80+ RBI? That is highway robbery.
Based strictly on the difference rankings and draft slot, Jhoulys Chacin probably is the greatest steal of my draft. Ranked the 162nd overall player, I got him 62 spots later. He arguably has the best stuff of all the Rockies starters, and he is on the same team as Ulbado Jimenez. Guys like Jaime Garcia, Brett Myers, Brian Matusz, and Jake Peavy were all drafted ahead of Chacin, and he will likely outperform all of them. A rob job of the ages. I cannot say this enough times: You can wait for pitching!
Moving Forward
Jordan Walden must not exist on my roster as soon as humanly allowable. Honestly, at that point in the draft, I was tired, and I panicked a bit because Hong-Chih Kuo just got picked up before I could get him. I will immediately drop him for a Gaby Sanchez or an Ike Davis, someone who can get me 20-80-80 with no batting risk. I know I have to keep updated with closer news and grab the ones that pop up. I have enough starting pitching so I can maybe do a 2-for-1 or 3-for-2 trade with pitching-needy owners to make room. Even without these minor changes, I feel I will hover around the top three in the standings all season long, but with a key trade or two, I expect that gold trophy at the end of the season.
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