In most circles, February 14th is popularly known as Valentine’s day, but we fantasy gamers have to show some love to professional baseball, as it is also the voluntary Spring Training reporting date for pitchers, catchers and injured players! Mock season is heating up, so we have to start thinking about guys we want to target who will give us a great return on our investments. Studs and Duds will analyze and present some players that are over or undervalued. This week, we are focusing on batters. Next issue we will look at pitchers.
Studs
Kendry Morales, LAA, 1B (Average Draft Position 58.87)
If you have read the previous FTP’s, then you are well aware of my man lust for the Cuban Missile. A lot of us remember Morales’ freak leg injury last year after jumping on home plate to celebrate a walk-off homerun. In 2009, when he was fifth in MVP voting, he hit 34 HR, 108 RBI, 86 R, and a .306 average. His leg is fine now and his offensive presence is one reason why the Angels did not go all out in the offseason. Moreover, he is the 11th first-bagger off the boards! He is being drafted after his 1B piers who have certain category liabilities. I’d much rather have the balanced offensive production from Morales rather than Dunn (48.80), a liability in batting average, and Morneau (49.02), who is still recovering from post-concussion symptoms.
Drew Stubbs, CIN, OF (172.12)
Trivia time. Three players in 2010 hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bases. One of them is Hanley Ramirez, the best fantasy shortstop in the game. Another one is Alex Rios, a toolsy outfielder for the White Sox who is hitting his stride after being traded from the Jays. The third is Drew Stubbs. Stubbs probably posted the quietest 20-30 season ever. The Reds are on the rise this season with the newly minted NL MVP in Joey Votto, establishing franchise cornerstones (Votto and Jay Bruce), and cementing their pitching staff (Edinson Volquez, Johnny Cueto, Bronson Arroyo, and Aroldis Chapman). Many players can be overlooked in this crowd, but Stubbs can play some ball. He has the pedigree of being the eighth overall player drafted in the 2006 amateur draft. His .255 hampered his value somewhat, but he is a boon in runs, and his power-speed combination is a luxury in the fantasy game. He has a minor league career average of .269, so his average can come up a bit. If he can stick in the leadoff role, expect those runs scored to explode and Stubbs to be recognized as a major contributor to the modern Big Red Machine. Being drafted after Chris Young (ARI), Denard Span, and Manny Ramirez, if you can get the former Texas Longhorn in the 14th round or later in a 12-team league, you are committing highway robbery.
Jason Bay, NYM, OF (184.73)
The Mets had a forgettable 2010 season, mostly because the injury bug bit deep into their roster. Despite a 4 year/$66 million contract, Bay played only 95 games before being shut down by a concussion. Despite his terrible statistics from a season ago, do not forget that he is teeming with talent. Bay is one season removed from the epic 36-119-103 season he had in Boston. This offseason, he has been working hard to be more balanced at the plate. A career .278 hitter, I have faith that the Canadian can bring his average back up to the .270 range, with 90 runs and RBI’s hitting with Jose Reyes and David Wright in that line up. His 2005-2009 statistics are sufficient proof that he is a professional hitter and a prime fantasy contributor. Stash Bay in your line-up as an OF4 or on your bench and reap the rewards. He can be one of the big bargains of this season.
Ian Desmond, WAS, SS (191.57)
Shortstop is a very shallow position this year. After Hanley Ramirez, Troy Tulowitzki, and Jose Reyes, the talent dries up faster than the attendance at Nationals Park. Desmond is often overlooked because he plays in Washington, and the Nationals have been the bedrock of the NL East ocean. But did you know this: only seven shortstops posted double digits in both home runs and stolen bases, and Desmond was one of them. Even though the Nationals are a few years away from even being allowed to feel they are contenders, we can expect Desmond to improve his offensive numbers as he enters his power peak. Considering how little SS talent there is in fantasy baseball, getting a 15-15 player who can give you 75 RBI’s and runs without a terrible average around the 200th pick can go a long way towards a fantasy championship.
Duds
Ichiro, SEA, OF (33.5)
There is no question that Ichiro is a hitting machine. A 10-year MLB career average of .331 is worthy of the hall of fame one day. Averaging almost 40 steals is equally laudable. He is truly one of the best table setters in the game, shrouded somewhat by playing in Seattle. His accolades are certainly well deserved, but Ichiro’s particular skill set does not translate well in the fantasy game. Because he does not take many walks, he has many at-bats, so his high batting average goes a long way. Unfortunately, Ichiro is the offensive equivalent of a relief pitcher: he is essentially a one-trick pony. The historically offensive incompetence of the Mariners has been well documented. Ichiro only hit 6HR, scored 74 runs, and hit 43 RBI in 2010. He is a sinkhole in three offensive categories. For a player being drafted in the middle of the third round, this is crippling. Furthermore, if Ichiro has an off year at the plate, like when he posted a .315 average, then his value plummets to the fantasy depths. As great a hitter Ichiro is, he is too great of a fantasy risk to be considered a cornerstone of your team.
Jimmy Rollins, PHI, SS (43.15); Derek Jeter, NYY, SS (48.25)
If I told you Player A hit .282-18-70-83-13, Player B hit .278-15-61-83-10, Player C hit .270-10-67-111-18, and Player D hit .243-8-41-43-17, who do you feel is the best player? Other than the 111 runs scored by Player C, it is fair to say that Players A and B are more well rounded than C and D, and Player D is clearly the worst of the bunch. Well, Player C is Jeter, Player D is Rollins, and Players A and B are Alexei Ramirez (97.37) and Stephen Drew (124.26). Jeter and Rollins play for high-profile teams and are big names in their own right, but that is all they are. Each coming off disappointing seasons, they are being drafted right after the top tier shortstops Hanley, Tulo, and Reyes. Wait 40 or 50 picks later and target Alexei Ramirez or Stephen Drew instead.
Jacoby Ellsbury, BOS, OF (68.60)
Boston made lots of news this offseason with their major acquisitions in Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. Along with Red Sox incumbents Kevin Youkilis, Dustin Pedroia, David Ortiz, and J.D Drew, the top of the Red Sox line-up will strike fear into the majors this season. These six guys will take over the first six spots of the batting order, which leaves Ellsbury to be surrounded by the likes of Marco Scutaro and Jarrod Saltalamacchia. Ellsbury will have less RBI opportunities hitting in the bottom-third of the order, which also means he will have less protection. Ellsbury’s clear strength is base stealing, but after multiple injuries in 2010, I am going stay clear of Ellsbury and let a bandwagon hopper take the bait.
Paul Konerko, CHW, 1B (71.12)
Konerko, by most accounts, is a great leader in the locker room and has provided the White Sox with veteran leadership and stability for 12 seasons. Prior to last season, his career was in decline, with his RBI mark not topping 90, and runs scored not surpassing 75. Then Konerko drank the elixir of life and broke through with an MVP campaign in 2010, hitting 39-111-86 with a slash line of .312/.393/.584. I am going to let you in on a little secret: do not pay for career years, especially not one from a 34-year-old first basemen. In a deep position, if you still have not gotten your 1B at this point in the draft, or you are reinforcing a corner infield position, you should target the youth like Billy Butler or Gaby Sanchez.
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