As you all doubtless know, in America (that’s the big country a little to the south) the Democratic and Republican parties are in the process of electing their Presidential candidates for the federal election later this year. There is hot debate and close competition all around.
Iowa is the first state where the public votes. The Iowa caucuses are the first major event of the primaries, and frequently set the tone for the rest of the election. Iowa has 1,681 precincts, which elect delegates for their party’s conventions in each of the 99 counties. These conventions then send delegates to the Congressional District Convention and the State Convention, where once again delegates are selected to vote in the National Conventions of both parties. At all of these steps, the delegates are chosen proportionally according to the number of supporters the different candidates have. The procedures differ between the two parties: the Democrats vote by standing in groups and taking a head count, with a minimum threshold of 15% for a candidate to receive delegates, while the Republicans vote more generally by secret ballot.
The results of this year’s Iowa caucuses are surprising in several ways. In the first place, on the Republican side Ted Cruz won the largest number of delegates, having received 27.6% of the vote. This was against many predictions, as according to polls, Donald Trump had significantly more popular support. However, he only received 24.3% of the vote, with the discrepancy attributed to low turnout among his supporters. Marco Rubio was in a close third place, with 23.1%. There was some controversy after the fact, with some candidates, notably Donald Trump and Ben Carson, accusing the winner Ted Cruz of misrepresenting them to the public and spreading mistaken information. Trump accused Cruz of lying about Trump’s platform, while Carson accused him of falsely spreading a rumour that Carson was dropping out of the race. Cruz claimed in response to the latter accusation that it was an honest mistake made by his campaign staff, although many are still suspicious.
Meanwhile, the Democrat candidates were even closer, with Hillary Clinton receiving 49.85% of the vote and Bernie Sanders receiving 49.65%. The results were so close that there was some controversy about the vote, with some arguing that a recount should be made. However, it seems unlikely that anything about the results will change.
After the caucuses, several candidates dropped out due to low support: among the Republicans, Rand Paul, Rick Santorum, and Mike Huckabee suspended their campaigns, leaving, besides the aforementioned Cruz, Trump, Rubio and Carson, John Kasich, Chris Christie, Jeb Bush, Carly Fiorina, and Jim Gilmore in the race. Meanwhile, the Democratic election is now a two-horse race between Clinton and Sanders, as the third candidate, Martin O’Malley, dropped out after receiving only 0.54% of the vote.
Now that Iowa is settled (and in this campaign, “settled” is a very relative term), the next state where voting will take place is New Hampshire. Trump leads in the polls, but then again he also did in Iowa, and in the crowded Republican field it is difficult to predict what will happen next. Between Sanders and Clinton, who so far are very nearly tied, it could go either way. Only time will tell, and it is still impossible to predict with any confidence who the 2016 Presidential candidates will be.
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