Syrian Ceasefire in One Word: Tenuous

The February 27^th ceasefire agreement reached by the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) as well as members of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and members of its opposition centred around three main commitments to humanitarian access. The ISSG, which includes Iran, Turkey, Qatar, the Arab League, the European Union (EU), and the United States came to the United Nations-brokered agreement in Munich after peace talks that began in Geneva a month earlier in January.

The agreement, which theoretically applies to all of Syria, is not quite as simple as a cessation of violence by all parties. The terms of the cessation of hostilities agreement included specifications of ceasing attacks with any weapons, preventing territorial acquisition by recognized members, and most importantly, allowing humanitarian agencies “rapid, safe, unhindered and sustained access throughout areas under their operational control and allow immediate humanitarian assistance to reach all people in need” (Office of the Spokesperson, Washington, DC). However, military action, including airstrikes, will continue by US-led Counter ISIL Coalition, the Armed Forces of the Syrian Republic, and the Russian Armed Forces against groups designated as terrorists by the United Nations Security Council.

This means that the ceasefire is not geographically demarcated. More than 100 rebel factions agreed to abide by the terms of the ISSG agreement, according to the negotiations committee of the Syrian opposition; however, this exception to the terms creates a grey-area of potential attacks in the name of defeating terrorist organisations, or in rebel-held civilian areas. This, in addition to the continued military action by the various member nations of the ISSG against terrorist groups, will further complicate the already fragile ceasefire agreement. The United States has been working with the Russian Federation to try to designate areas as ceasefire-abiding or not, but no formal geographic terms have been decided. This means that many large areas known to be held by terrorist groups will remain active-conflict zones.

At the time of writing, the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) stated that 135 people have been killed in the first week of the ceasefire: 45 rebel/Islamic State fighters, 25 Assad government soldiers, 27 Syrian Kurdish fighters, and 32 civilians, of whom 7 were children. It also determined that 552 have been killed in areas not covered by the ceasefire.

While the death toll has been significant, all members of the ceasefire have agreed that there has been less overall violence, and humanitarian aid has been successfully delivered to areas under siege. While these are major improvements, the Syrian Opposition forces say that not enough aid has been able to get through. The UN estimates that half a million are living under siege within Syria, out of a further 4.6 million people who are difficult to reach to deliver desperately needed supplies.

In the major Syrian cities of Aleppo, Deraa, and Homs, as well as the capital Damascus, the ceasefire has bolstered demonstrators to take to the streets for the first time in years to hold anti-government protests.  Many speculate that the agreement will not hold; however, peace talks are tentatively slated to occur in Geneva sometime in mid-March.