Ukraine is currently in the midst of huge civil unrest. Depending on the source one could term it either as just a demonstration or alternatively a complete revolution. A lot of people know that there’s protests and riots going on in Ukraine, and most people seem to understand that they are due to the Ukrainian people wanting more European Union (EU) integration. Although that is basically true there’s a bit more to it than just that. This article will try to give a bit more background on why the protests started, explain what is currently happening and give a bit of insight on what the future might hold for what is being dubbed “the largest ever pro-European rally in history.”
Ever since Ukraine gained its independence from the Soviet Union it has been a divided nation. It is split between Russian speakers in the Eastern Half and Ukrainian speakers in the Western half. This split of language also doubles as a split in politics. The Western half is pro-European and the eastern half is pro-Russian. There is a near-even split between the two during Presidential elections where victories are narrowly won by few percentage points with the East and West each voting for different candidates.
This divide was emphasised by the 2004 Presidential election which sparked the Orange Revolution. The election was between Pro-European Viktor Yushchenko and Pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovych. The initial results were Yanukovych with 49 per cent and Yuskchenko with 46 per cent (The remaining percentage was in “Against Both” and disqualified ballots). Accusations of corruption and electoral fraud caused the start of the Orange Revolution where protests began throughout Ukraine including 500 000 protesters in the capital, Kiev.
A new fair election gave Yanukovych 44 per cent and Yuschenko 52 per cent.
The divide between the two was obvious. Yanukovych was not fluent in Ukrainian, and Yuskchenko used an interpreter to speak to Vladimir Putin despite being fully fluent in Russian. Yuskchenko began five years of Ukrainianization and pro-European policies.
Yuschenko was president for five years until the 2010 Presidential election where Yanukovych defeated Yulia Tymoshenko 49 per cent to 45 per cent. Yanukovych’s reign since then has been plagued with accusations of corruption and consolidating power within his family. He has been using his position to further his own interests of himself and his family as well as consolidating his power and being accused of using the secret police for his own gains.
The first event that caused unrest during his presidency was the imprisonment of his former opponent Yulia Tymoshenko which many have said was politically motivated. That combined with the accusations of corruption were building pressure and dissent among the people right up until the protests which began November 21, 2013.
It is being called the Euromaidan in Ukraine and it has been going on for months. It began after the Ukrainian government suspended the signing of the association agreement with the European Union. This was an agreement that would bring Ukraine into closer intergration with the EU but the Yanukovych decided he didn’t want to sign at the moment.
It began with a few thousand people, mostly students, protesting at Independence Square in Kiev, but by November 24, 2013 the number swelled from 100 000 to 200 000 in Kiev and many other protests throughout Ukraine.
Numbers in Kiev dropped after November 24 to just thousands until November 30 when the riot police stormed the square and attacked the protesters. This crackdown caused riots the next day with hundreds of thousands participating. They attacked riot police and occupied the city hall which still remains in their control today.
The next day after the riots peaceful protests continued. Barricades and tents were erected by the protesters in Independence Square as they began settling in for the long haul. December 8, 2013 was the third Sunday in a row of protest and 500 000 people went to a rally in Kiev. During the rally the Kiev statue of Lenin was toppled.
On December 17, 2013 the Ukrainian Government signed a bailout deal with the Russian government. The deal meant Russia would buy $15 billion of Ukrainian bonds as well as reduce the price of natural gas that Russia supplies. The Ukrainian government said that it was necessary for the economy and that it had no choice since the International Monetary Fund proposal was unreasonable. Two days later President Yanukovych said that he stopped any pursuit of an Association Agreement with the European Union.
The civil unrest has been going on steadily since then. Independence square has often been compared to a warzone. There are barricades and walls of burning tires. Tents and other temporary shelters are erected. Throughout the week there are a few thousand people manning their posts. On the weekends the numbers surge to the hundred thousands.
Men patrol the barricades, old grannies prepare food, and women prepare molotovs. There are occasional clashes with police as well as the occasional storming and capture of public buildings.
There has been accusations that pro-government groups have been attacking protesters. Demonstrators are afraid to go to hospitals because pro-government groups have been kidnapping injured protesters and assaulting them. One activist was found on January 31 having been kidnapped on January 22, beaten, and crucified.
Anti-protest laws were passed by Yanukovych on January 16. These were dubbed “dictator laws” and drew criticism from the West and East Ukraine as well as the rest of the world. They greatly curbed free speech and protest but they were repealed on January 28.
January 28 also saw the resignation of the Prime Minister of Ukraine and the dismissing of the cabinet. Though this gesture probably would have caused cheers weeks ago, now it is met without much excitement. Not even the amnesty agreement law has satisfied them. Likely, the only thing that will see them leave is if President Yanukovych resigns and a new election is held. Yanukovych probably won’t agree to that because he’ll likely be prosecuted and thrown in jail, which is what the former Prime Minister realised when he resigned and fled to Austria saying he has no plans to go back.
Despite the civil unrest, Kiev carries on its day-to-day business. People still work, shops are still open. Independence Square is the only part of the city not operating as usual. But with an ex-President saying that Ukraine is on the brink of “a civil war,” will that still hold true? Every day the protesters grow less and less likely to accept concessions made by Yanukovych. His only two options are to step down or crack down. One might lead to greater EU integration and the other to a Russian influenced dictatorship similar to that in Belarus. The coming weeks will likely show a big shift in the political landscape in Eastern Europe.
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