Since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century, technology has been advancing fast. It allowed, for instance, the textile industry, previously a labor-intensive task of manual weaving, to be automated by giant machines that would have taken an army of horses or humans to power. And with that came the first job losses, as thousands of home-based textile makers, particularly in England where the Industrial Revolution began, got priced out.
Of course, when the family-based textile industry disappeared, a new industry was created: factories needed workers and overseers and managers. That was the story everywhere. It has been the story for all time, too. As automation destroys jobs, new ones are created. But there is no guarantee that this will go on. There should be no expectation that this will go on. Instead, there should be worry that a job ceiling is coming, where almost all jobs can be automated and most people, through no fault of their own, cannot find work. In the near future even the creation of artisan products may be automated, displacing a currently-safe job refuge. And even though the potential outcome of this process is terrible, resulting in a Great Depression-era global economic slowdown, it is likely to continue unabated.
One of the continuing legacies of the Industrial Revolution is one of increasing education. In Canada between 2000 and 2013 the number of people with post-secondary degrees rose from 15.5% to 22.7%. This rise is in a demographic that might have gone into now-rare low-skill jobs, but chose to continue its education to enter industries where there are still plenty of jobs. But this also represents at least four more years of school for 7.2% of the population. Similarly, in 1900, 6% of Americans graduated high school. Just over a century later, almost every position requires a secondary-school diploma, or 18 years of education. Eventually the educational requirements to get a job will be too extreme for most people. Can you learn for 50 years, accruing huge amounts of student debt, then work so productively for the next 20 years that you can pay it off and retire? There is a ceiling on the amount of education we can have. As the criteria for a high-skill job rises, there will eventually just not be any jobs humans can learn that automation also cannot do.
One industry that seems very strong right now, and not vulnerable to automation, is the artisan product industry. Be it free-range organic produce, handmade art, or a one-of-a-kind classic car restoration, people like things that are unique and original. Fortunately for the individuals who can make these products, the value of artisan products runs counter to the major automation tools of repeatability, uniformity, and mass production. Unfortunately, new techniques such as additive manufacturing are opening new opportunities in automation and the mass-production of unique items. For instance, one could imagine buying a car that had a unique hood ornament, a customized spoiler, and a steering wheel contoured to one’s hands on top of a generic car frame. Such customization is happening already online. Not only do services like Gmail and Facebook give you a personalized webpage with your information on it, but both also serve you advertisements based on your personal interests. In a still-advertising, but perhaps more helpful way, every online store ever shows you products that go well with what you’re currently looking at, what else you might like, and what other people like you have enjoyed. So the artisan job markets will soon be under threat, calling into question the safety of even safer-looking pursuits like art and design.
If all jobs disappear it would be a huge problem, especially if we have not prepared for the eventuality. With no jobs, no one would have money to buy products, putting the few people still employed out of work. The global economic collapse that would result would be at least similar, if not more major, than the Great Depression. Of course, this would ruin the corporations that automated away all of the jobs, and since corporations want to make money, they will stop automation before it becomes unsustainable. Unfortunately, this is not the case; instead, the “tragedy of the commons” would do its ruinous work and actively steer the future towards one of unbounded automation.
The tragedy of the commons, as initially proposed, is the idea that a number of shepherds using a communal field for grazing will eventually destroy the field through overgrazing. It would be in the best interest of all the shepherds if they kept the number of sheep sustainable, such that it would support grazing every year. But it’s also in the best interest of each individual shepherd to put a few more sheep in the field, slowly degrading the land but making a better profit this year. Once one shepherd does this, he is essentially profiting off of the future earning of all the other shepherds. Other shepherds recognize this, and put more sheep out to get a profit themselves before their livelihood is destroyed. As a result, the field is quickly overgrazed by all the shepherds, who all lose out.
Similarly to the tragedy of the commons, automation creates the tragedy of the labour commons: companies need to keep the workforce wealthy (i.e. employed) so that they will buy products. But at the same time, any individual company that embraces automation creates more profit in the short term. Eventually, all companies are almost entirely automated, not enough new jobs are created, and the entire economy suffers. Despite being a bad outcome, it can be brought about by innocent, intelligent decisions by the companies that lose out.
The job market may not be in imminent danger of collapse, but automation will eventually create a world where every job that a human can do, a robot will do better. Even industries that today seem secure, like artisans and makers of one-of-a-kind products, can and will be automated. While this could cause the collapse of the world economy if poorly managed, it is likely to come about despite anyone’s efforts to stop it.
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