On November 24 2015, a Russian Sukhoi Su-24M bomber was shot down by a Turkish F-16 fighter jet near the Syria-Turkey border while it was returning to base. Turkey claims that the bomber entered Turkish air space for 17 seconds while Russia claims that it did no such thing. The incident has further escalated tensions in an already volatile region, due to the recent Paris attacks and concern over ISIS gains in the Middle East.
Russia has long held close ties with the Assad dictatorship that ruled Syria. Since the Syrian Civil War broke out in 2011 as a consequence of the Arab Spring, Putin and Russia have been supporting the regime both diplomatically, by vetoing anti-Assad UN resolutions, and militarily, in the form of air strikes. It has also been performing air strikes against ISIS locations since the jihadist state spread its borders into Syria.
Turkey’s relations with Syria were also cordial for a long time, but that changed after the start of the Civil War. Turkey has since been flooded with Syrian refugees on their way to Europe, and the government did not have enough resources to deal with all of them. Additionally, the Syria-Turkey border has been the site of multiple skirmishes and incidents since the Civil War began. In 2012, a Turkish jet was shot down by Syrian forces, and since then, Turkey has tightened its borders and patrols against all foreign elements that would trespass into Turkish territory. The current Turkish government, headed by Recep Erdoğan and his party, the AKP, has been much more authoritarian and aggressive than its predecessors, which has strained relations with other countries.
True to its word, the Turkish military shot down the Russian bomber as it was treated as a hostile entity. Turkey claims that the bomber was located around two kilometres into Turkish airspace, despite being warned that it was approaching Turkish airspace ten times in five minutes. Additionally, Turkey stated that they did not know the nationality of the bomber when it was shot down. Russia claims that their bomber was never in Turkish airspace in the first place. While Turkey broadcasted its warning on an international channel, the Sukhoi bomber was not able to pick up the channel unless optional radio equipment was installed, which it may not have been. Thus it is possible that the Russian aircraft did in fact not hear any of the warnings issued by Turkey, as Russia claims. After being shot down, the two pilots both ejected from the plane. Russia claims that one was shot down while in the air, while the other was rescued.
The exact circumstances surrounding the downing of the bomber remain murky. Officially, America seems to be siding with Turkey, likely due to its NATO commitments. However, an unnamed American official has stated that the Russian jet was in fact shot down in Syrian territory, not in Turkish territory, though it was in Turkish airspace for two to three seconds.
Both Putin and Erdoğan have a reputation for being very stubborn, aggressive leaders, and neither side has backed down over the incident. Russia has demanded an official apology from Turkey, which Turkey refused to give. The situation continues to escalate, and a compromise seems increasingly difficult to broker. Accusations have been flung back and forth between the two sides, with Russia being criticized for supporting a dictatorship that has committed atrocities on its own civilians, and Turkey being labeled as a supporter of the fundamentalist Islamic State. Russia has announced it would be imposing sanctions against Turkey, and has stepped up its attacks on rebel and ISIS targets near the border. The US has responded in support of Turkey by announcing a new round of sanctions against Syrian and Russian interests.
The situation continues to escalate with no end in sight. However, it remains unlikely that the situation will become a military conflict, as both sides are concerned with the larger threat of ISIS right now, which would capitalize on a military divide in the forces relayed against them. Nonetheless, if the situation does become a military conflict, there is a distinct possibility for it to take on a global scope. Turkey is a member of NATO, and as a result, the other members of NATO, comprising the majority of Europe and North America, would be compelled to defend it against an attack. Europe and America cannot back out of a conflict like they did in Ukraine without rendering NATO useless. In the coming days, the incident will have to be handled very carefully, and hopefully a compromise will be found.
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