Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose. In English, this translates to “The more things change, the more they stay the same.” This saying is attributed to Jean-Baptiste Alphonse Karr, a French Victorian era writer and critic. He was born during the reign of Napoleon and lived in an age of many regime changes, from empire to monarchy to republic, then back to empire and then republic again. Yet his most famous quote is still very relevant today in many places of the world. Egypt is a recent example of Karr’s quote in action.
The Arab Spring bubbled up seemingly out of nowhere starting in late 2010, as civilians across North Africa and the Middle East took to the streets and demanded change. Though there were certainly underlying causes behind the movement, such as decades of mismanagement and poor treatment under the many dictatorships in the area, the actual movement itself spread rapidly through that part of the world. Egypt was one of the shining examples of the change that the Arab Spring was supposed to bring. Although it was not achieved completely through peaceful means, the protest started out nonviolent and was able to achieve its aim of political change without descending into outright civil war. After 30-year President of Egypt Hosni Mubarak stepped down following eighteen days of protest, Egyptians were on the streets celebrating, the future in their hands.
And yet, after that initial high point three years ago, things have only gone downhill. Mubarak’s democratically elected successor, Mohammed Morsi, almost immediately gave himself unlimited powers, ostensibly to “protect” Egypt from the remnants of the Mubarak-era power structure. Part of these powers was the ability to legislate without judicial review or congressional approval. Hmm, this is starting to sound kind of familiar. I wonder if there’s some handbook or manual somewhere that all aspiring dictators read before… becoming dictators.
He then attempted to push through a new constitution which would have turned Egypt into an Islamist state. The people were unhappy about this and protested again. While it is good that the Egyptians defended their freedoms, protest and unconstitutional regime change should be the last resort, and the fact that the Egyptian public resorted to protests and riots twice in two years served as a first warning sign that democracy was not alive and healthy in Egypt. Things took a turn for the worse when Morsi was overthrown in a coup d’état by the military. Strike number two. Dictatorships always start one of two ways: revolution or military coup d’état, and this instance was clearly not the former. After this event, Egypt did not hold another election until the year after. Essentially, Egypt spent a year under a government they did not elect. Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.
While Egypt is now under a democratically elected president, it’s Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, who resigned from his position as the Commander-in-Chief of Egypt’s armed forces to run for president, which he won in a landslide… let’s go through that sentence again, slowly. El-Sisi was the former Commander-in-Chief, meaning he’s technically been in power for the last year already. He also won the election race with a landslide. I don’t know about you, but that basically screams election fraud to me. It’s possible that Egyptians were so sick of the Morsi that they voted overwhelmingly for his usurper, but I find that hard to believe.
The jury’s out on the state of democracy in Egypt, but the future isn’t looking as bright as it did three years ago. That same story is repeating itself across the entire Arab world. Tunisia’s opposition leader, Chokri Belaid, was assassinated in 2013. Libya was dragged down in a bloody civil war. Syria still is in the middle of a civil war. Countries like Saudi Arabia are still held in the iron grip of royal families wearing the archaic trappings of feudalism. The Arab Spring was born out of intentions of peace and democracy, but has instead resulted in more bloodshed in an already unstable region. Democracy is clearly not an easy task, and sowing its seeds does not happen overnight.
There is still hope however. Egypt’s current president, El-Sisi, had been a supporter of democracy and pluralism in his war college days; perhaps he still is. Libya’s elections after the civil war had gone surprisingly smoothly and peacefully, and could perhaps serve as a model for other states in the region. The Arab world is in a transition state right now, going through growing pains. It will take years, maybe even decades, of hard work, but at the end of the day democracy may prevail in the Middle East.
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