Last weekend was the Chinese Lunar New Year. If you’re Chinese, you probably went home to visit your family and celebrate. If you’re not, you probably have many Chinese friends who did just that. The same story repeats around the world as people travel to be reunited with their families as they prepare to celebrate the Year of the Horse. As you might expect, this occurs in especially large numbers in China, which obviously has the largest Chinese population in the world. Many Chinese live far from their home villages, as most of China’s jobs and wealth are found in the big cities. Almost all of these former rural dwellers will return to their home village for Chinese New Year. However, this year, celebrations may be marred by a familiar menace.
H7N9 is the latest strain of avian bird flu to raise alarm in China and the world over. Four years ago, its cousin, H5N1 caused mass panic as millions of chickens were culled in the East and hundreds of people fell fatally ill with this foreign and deadly virus. As the virus developed in birds, the human immune system has no idea how to deal with it, and it can offer no protection, which is what makes the virus so deadly. Fortunately, the true doomsday scenario of H5N1 developing into a form that allows human to human transmission, did not come to pass, and humanity was able to dodge a pandemic that could have possibly killed more people than any disease since the Spanish Flu in World War 1. However, last year, this new strain, H7N9, has started to appear in humans, raising the world’s fears once again.
This strain has only shown signs of the traditional bird to human transmission so far, and no signs of sustained human to human transmission. However, it may not need to be able to travel between humans for it to pose a threat. Chicken is a traditional meal prepared by the majority of families on Chinese New Year. Naturally, many people bring live chickens home to their families to prepare for the traditional feast. These chickens may or not be infected with influenza, and as millions, if not billions, of chickens are carried across the country, these birds serve as carriers, not only infecting the humans they come in contact with, but also possibly exposing even more bird populations to H7N9, which will then affect even more human populations, possibly resulting in an uncontrollable pandemic.
Chinese authorities have been taking measures to prevent this from happening, declaring a ban on live poultry sales. Hong Kong has banned live poultry sales for the coming three weeks, and has recently culled over twenty thousand chickens to protect the population. However, these measures may not be enough, as the ban may be difficult to enforce in a country as large as China, and the damage may have already been done. In addition, the Lunar New Year season is one of the busiest times for poultry vendors, and they may cut some corners or skirt some regulations to ensure that their business is not hurt.
As H7N9 has not shown any signs of inter-human transmission yet, and outbreaks remain relatively isolated incidents, it is possible that, like H5N1 before it, the pandemic may never come to pass. However, when dealing with millions of potential cases, one can never be too cautious, and the world watches this New Year with concern as it may turn out to not be so celebratory after all.
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