If Canada were to hold another election in 2012 (god forbid!), the chances of hearing about MPs on the campaign trail a year before voting day would be slim to none. However, this is exactly what has been the focus of America’s attention for the past couple of months now. Members of the Democratic and Republican Party (also known as the GOP) have already begun formally announcing their candidacy and rallying for their nomination as the primary candidate for their respective parties. A quick outline of select formally announced candidates, the focus of their platforms and the likelihood of being a primary candidate (in my opinion) for the major parties are as follows.
Democratic Party:
Barack Obama:
The 44th and current President of the United States formally announced his candidacy as the primary nomination on April 4th of this year. As he has served one term in office, he is eligible to seek a second term; however, he may not seek more terms afterwards. Those who worked their magic as head of his campaign staff and policy team are to return with full force with the added arsenal of high-profile figures like Rahm Emanuel, former Chief of Staff and current Mayor of Chicago, and Jim Messina, former Deputy Chief of Staff, as campaign manager. President Obama’s platform on health care reform, economic policies on federal spending, foreign policy regarding Middle East relations, the Iraq and Afghanistan War and Libyan sanctions are expected to remain the same for the 2012 campaign. Little is known about new platforms or the platform’s main focus.
Likelihood of being the Democratic Party Presidential Nominee: 95%
Randall Terry:
The second candidate for Democratic Party nomination is well-known as being a “pro-life” activist based out of New York. His claim-to-fame is “Operation Rescue,” an organization he founded that opposed the legality of human-induced abortion. Terry has been known for his controversial statements, the most famous being that abortion is essentially murder and should be treated as a capital offence. His career in parliament extends to his running for Congress in upstate New York in 1998 and for a seat in the Florida State Senate; he lost both times in the Republican primary.
Likelihood of being the Democratic Party Presidential Nominee: 5%
It is important to note that Hillary Rodham Clinton, the 67th and current Secretary of State for President Obama’s administration, has definitively declined to run for president in 2012.
Republican Party:
Unlike the Democratic Party, the candidates for GOP presidential nomination are widespread with support for each is divided. The few selected below are considered the front runners in terms of public and financial support.
Mitt Romney:
Being a seasoned candidate for the presidential race, it came as no surprise when Mitt Romney, former Governor of Massachusetts and successful businessman, announced his intention to run for Republican presidential nomination on June 2nd of this year. During his previous run for presidential nomination in 2008, he won multiple caucus and primaries (votes from party members in each region) but ultimately lost to future nominee, John McCain. Since his loss in 2008, he has kept much of the money fundraised to pay salaries to his political staff and build a political infrastructure that has become campaign valued at a staggering $1 billion this year. Also, he continued to make speeches and raise campaign funds while still remaining out of the public eye until making his formal announcement. His platform remains mostly unchanged from his 2008 run at president; however some marked changes in his health care, taxes and environmental changes have given him a much needed boost in opinion polls conducted so far. The focuses of his platform are for job creation, immigration and fiscal discipline.
Likelihood of being the Republican Party Presidential Nominee: 40%
Mike Huckabee:
Like Romney, Mike Huckabee, former Governer of Arkansas and host of Fox News Channel talk Show, Huckabee, has been penned to be a leading figure in the opinion polls conducted this year. Like Romney, he was also a candidate for the 2008 Republican nomination primaries and finished in an overall third behind McCain and Romney. Despite the setback, he was mentioned as being on the short-list to be McCain’s running mate; unfortunately, he was passed over by Sarah Palin. Recently, he has been the centre of some controversy regarding statements made to others ranging from President Obama to Natalie Portman. While he did decline running for candidacy in May, he has not made any confirmation of this statement and is still speculated to run given his nation-wide popularity in recent polls. Like his run in 2008, his platform on education, environmental issues, immigration and foreign policy have remained the same; however, his focus has shifted more towards environment, immigration compared to education.
Likelihood of being the Republican Party Presidential Nominee: 15%
Newt Gingrich:
Being the oldest and the most seasoned of this group of candidates, it came as no surprise that Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, announced his candidacy on May 11th, 2011. Like Romney, Gingrich was poised to become the Republican nomination soon after the 2008 presidential election concluded. He began campaigning in 2010 in Iowa and New Hampshire (both primary states) and took part in the Conservative Political Action Conference in 2011, thus fuelling more speculation of a potential run at GOP nomination. The focus of his platform is expected to cover national security, immigration (however, unlike other candidates, favours a “guest worker” initiative) and economical policy. He has also been known to hold slightly controversial views including Obama’s “socialist” agenda. In his road to becoming the GOP’s nominee for president, he suffered a major setback on June 9th when his entire team of senior campaign aides, including his campaign manager, left the campaign citing differences in campaign direction and Gingrich’s commitment to this run for Republican nomination.
Likelihood of being the Republican Party Presidential Nominee: 20%
Sarah Palin:
This well-known and often mocked politician has recently been thrust back into the spotlight amidst rumours that she may run for GOP nomination for the presidential election. Formerly known as the Governor of Alaska and the nominee for Vice President alongside John McCain in 2008, she has gained national attention for her comments during the 2008 presidential election and scandal surrounding her family. While running for vice-president, she experienced intense media scrutiny due to her inexperience in politics, her aggressive conduct during rallies and her expenditure of campaign funds. Following the election, Sarah Palin became a pop culture figure that spawned into best-selling books, a TV show and the foundation of several organizations under her name. While she has not formally declared candidacy, recent tours overseas and comments suggesting her inclusion in the presidential race suggest that she is likely to declare candidacy. Her platform on health care, education, gun safety and foreign policy are slated to stay the same with a new focus on the environment to come if or when she declares candidacy.
Likelihood of being the Republican Party Presidential Nominee: 20%
It is important to note that Donald Trump, successful businessman and TV personality, has officially declined candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination. Also, a number of other declared candidates have risen in poll standings; therefore, the proposed leaders for GOP nomination are subject to change as the year goes on.
With the impending American election next year, the world will once again shift its focus to this country to watch the race for presidency unfold. While the actual run for presidency may not be as heated as it was in 2008, the re-election of the House of Representatives and the Senate may prove to be more interesting since its role in legislation and policy-making has become apparent after the last three years of internal conflict in the House under Obama’s rule. While that is a major event of interest over the next two years, the most exciting part of the presidential race that I will be following is the Republican nomination death-match occurring soon.
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