This fall’s federal election will be one of the most intriguing in recent years. There is no clear-cut winner like in the past two elections, and it is highly unlikely that there will be a majority government. Whoever wins will do so by a razor-thin margin, with a mere couple of seats separating government and opposition.
The two major contending parties this time around are Stephen Harper’s Conservatives and Thomas Mulcair’s NDP. The Liberals are lagging behind a little at the moment. This can be attributed to Justin Trudeau’s inability to sell his platform to centre and just left-of-centre voters. With many focused on party leaders, the deterioration of Trudeau’s image has worsened his chances. That being said, Trudeau and the Liberals have gained momentum this year, and many Canadian’s displeasure with the Harper government can only help them out.
The first interesting story to watch unfold will be how Quebec votes. With Gilles Duceppe back on as the Bloc’s leader, polls indicate a decent likelihood of the BQ stealing away enough seats for official party status (i.e.: a minimum of 12 seats). It is generally believed that these BQ seats will come at the expense of the NDP (winners of a party-record number of Quebec seats in 2011).
According to a recent Angus-Reid poll, the NDP would win 36% of the popular vote, with the Conservatives at 31%, 23% Liberal, 5% Bloc and 5% Green. Five runs of the Globe and Mail’s Election Simulator suggest similar trends. Zooming in on some provinces, there are some interesting things happening: first, the NDP appears to have gained a lot of popularity in British Columbia, winning 60-80% of available BC seats on each run. Conservative popularity is not what it was in Ontario, with the Liberals likely to win back several of the seats that went Conservative in 2011. Unsurprisingly, Quebec will mostly go NDP, with the BQ snagging a few seats (but only enough for official party status in one out of the five simulations). Results in the West (Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba) are as expected, with the Conservatives winning the majority of the seats there.
Though the NDP appear to be leading the Conservatives by a small margin right now, it could easily go the other way. In particular, it is worth considering a scenario in which Trudeau’s Liberals manage to gain some momentum; because the NDP and the Liberals are basically marketing themselves as “We’re not Harper! Vote for us and change will happen!” it is likely that any Liberal gains will come at the expense of the NDP. Should this occur, the Liberals and the NDP will split the left, centre-left, and possibly even the dead-centre vote, clearing the way for another Harper Conservative win (albeit a minority).
Needless to say, voter turnout will be another determining factor. Just because someone says they will vote for a party doesn’t mean they will physically haul themselves to a voting station on Election Day. The key issue for all three parties (as always) is to get as many of their supporters physically putting ballots in the ballot box. While popular vote prior to the election tells us a bit about what could happen, in this regard it is perhaps not always representative. That being said, pollsters who subdivide into asking people if they will actually go out and vote would probably have a significantly smaller sample size to work with, thereby lending less statistical credibility to their results.
Fortunately, it seems likely that voter turnout will be higher than usual at this Election. It appears that most Canadians are either strongly in favour of keeping the Conservatives in, or booting them right the hell out. With the race so close, more people will probably be motivated to hit the polls—who knows? One person’s vote just might make a difference.
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